# Audit-Report · Marktanalyse

**Run-Ordner**: `outputs/2026-04-20_realms`
**Generiert**: 2026-04-20 21:48:52

## 4-fach-Audit · Ergebnis

- **Gesamt-Score**: **96.8** / 100
- **Status**: ✓ PASS
- **Schwellen**: Gesamt ≥ 85, pro Dimension ≥ 80

| Dimension | Score | Status | Issues |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completeness | 100 | ✓ | 0 |
| Facts | 87 | ✓ | 3 |
| Logic | 100 | ✓ | 0 |
| Freshness | 100 | ✓ | 0 |

### Facts — Issues

- tam_b_potenzialanalyse_price_per_schueler_eur: HTTP 400 — https://www.bildungsketten.de/bildungsketten/de/home/home_node.html
- tam_b_potenzialanalyse_teilnehmer_share: HTTP 400 — https://www.bildungsketten.de/bildungsketten/de/home/home_node.html
- tam_d_cv_bewerbungstools_b2c_de_eur_year: URL unreachable — https://www.livecareer.com/lp/b2c-resume-builder (TimeoutError)

## Assumptions-Inventar

- Total: **66** Assumptions
- Validiert: **66** (100 %)
- Canonical: **6**

| ID | Wert | Einheit | Alter (Mo) | Canonical | Validiert von |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `context_primary_schueler_schule_lehrkraft` | 1.0 | bool | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `context_primary_schueler_zuhause_selbst` | 1.0 | bool | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `context_primary_unternehmen_desktop_selbst` | 1.0 | bool | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `context_product_visibility` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `context_product_maturity` | 0.0 | string | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `context_paying_customer_side` | 0.0 | string | 0 | ✓ | founder |
| `hypothesis_01_vorbereitete_kandidaten` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_02_reflexion_besser_als_interessentests` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_03_produkt_einheitliche_journey` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_04_schule_adoption_ready` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_05_b2b_premium_price_zahlbar` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_06_ai_act_compliance_started` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `hypothesis_07_kmu_reachable_smb_selfservice` | 0.0 | bool | 0 | – | hypothesis_register_documented |
| `fx_usd_eur` | 0.92 | EUR per USD | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_a_ausbildende_betriebe_de` | 402800.0 | betriebe | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_a_pain_share_unbesetzt_dihk` | 0.48 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_a_avg_recruiting_spend_per_betrieb_eur_year` | 1800.0 | eur_per_year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_a_digital_recruiting_adoption_share` | 0.74 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_b_schueler_sek_i_ii_kl_7_10_de` | 3200000.0 | schueler | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_b_potenzialanalyse_price_per_schueler_eur` | 220.0 | eur_per_schueler | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_b_potenzialanalyse_teilnehmer_share` | 0.3 | share | 28 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_b_berufswahlapp_budget_de_eur_year` | 3000000.0 | eur_per_year | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_c_private_career_coaching_de_eur_year` | 80000000.0 | eur_per_year | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_d_cv_bewerbungstools_b2c_de_eur_year` | 15000000.0 | eur_per_year | 28 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `tam_e_ba_berufsberatung_budget_de_eur_year` | 45000000.0 | eur_per_year | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_network_effects_indirect_status` | 0.0 | string | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_distribution_status` | 0.0 | string | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_switching_costs_status` | 0.0 | string | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_regulatory_status_reversal` | 0.0 | string | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_recommended_stack` | 3.0 | count | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_build_budget_24mo` | 375000.0 | EUR | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_cash_need_24mo` | 900000.0 | EUR | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_realistic_defense_score_2028` | 5.0 | score_out_of_10 | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `moat_failure_scenario_top1_probability` | 0.42 | share | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_total_ausbildende_betriebe_de` | 402800.0 | betriebe | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_kmu_share_of_ausbildende_betriebe` | 0.955 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_pain_share_dihk_2025` | 0.48 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_digital_recruiting_adoption_kmu` | 0.7 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_realms_arpu_canonical_eur_year` | 5500.0 | eur_per_year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_diy_substitution_discount_pct` | 0.4 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_region_share_de_of_block_a_tam` | 1.0 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `sam_enterprise_discount_pct` | 0.05 | share | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_reach_base_direct_close_rate` | 0.035 | ratio | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_arpu_bimodal_floor_eur_year` | 4500.0 | EUR/Jahr | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_arpu_bimodal_median_eur_year` | 5500.0 | EUR/Jahr | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_arpu_bimodal_premium_eur_year` | 7500.0 | EUR/Jahr | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_annual_churn_base_pct` | 0.15 | ratio | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_marketing_budget_y1_eur` | 100000.0 | EUR | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_cac_base_eur` | 1136.0 | EUR/Kunde | 16 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `som_school_channel_conversion_pct` | 0.05 | ratio | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_aubiplus_price_eur_year` | 430.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_ausbildungde_kompakt_eur_year` | 1350.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_ausbildungde_plus_eur_year` | 3800.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_azubiyo_basis_eur_year` | 2278.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_studyflix_premium_eur_year` | 5500.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_stepstone_azubi_mid_eur_year` | 2500.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `competitor_check_u_berufenet_eur_year` | 0.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_recommended_tier_starter_eur_year` | 1800.0 | EUR/year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_recommended_tier_standard_eur_year` | 4800.0 | EUR/year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_recommended_tier_premium_eur_year` | 7800.0 | EUR/year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_addon_bewerbungs_prep_eur_year` | 1500.0 | EUR/year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_addon_custom_matching_eur_year` | 500.0 | EUR/year | 0 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_vdw_too_cheap_eur_year` | 900.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_vdw_cheap_eur_year` | 2300.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_vdw_expensive_eur_year` | 5500.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |
| `realms_vdw_too_expensive_eur_year` | 8500.0 | EUR/year | 4 | – | adversarial_validator_pair |

## Calculations-Inventar

- Total: **78** Calculations
- Verifiziert: **0**
- Alle Matches OK: ✓

| ID | Formel | Ergebnis | Einheit | Verifiziert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `tam_de_block_a_b2b_recruiting_eur_year` | `betriebe * digital_adoption * avg_spend` | 536529600.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_b1_potenzialanalyse_eur_year` | `schueler * teilnahme_share * preis_pro_schueler` | 211200000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_b2_berufswahlapp_eur_year` | `budget_jaehrlich` | 3000000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_b_schultraeger_bo_eur_year` | `b1 + b2` | 214200000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_c_private_coaching_eur_year` | `c_value` | 80000000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_d_cv_tools_b2c_eur_year` | `d_value` | 15000000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_block_e_ba_berufsberatung_eur_year` | `e_value` | 45000000.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_total_context_filtered_eur_year` | `a + b + c + d + e` | 890729600.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_dach_total_eur_year` | `tam_de * dach_faktor` | 1051060928.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_eu_total_eur_year` | `tam_de * eu_faktor` | 2672188800.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_y1_2027_eur_year` | `tam_base * (1 + cagr) ** 1` | 926358784.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_y2_2028_eur_year` | `tam_base * (1 + cagr) ** 2` | 963413135.3600001 | eur_per_year | – |
| `tam_de_y3_2029_eur_year` | `tam_base * (1 + cagr) ** 3` | 1001949660.7744001 | eur_per_year | – |
| `moat_budget_total_24mo` | `moat_building_core + regulatory_hygiene + distribution_events + community_brand_press + funding_prep + buffer` | 375000.0 | EUR | – |
| `moat_cash_need_24mo` | `moat_build_budget + personal_4_5_fte_24mo` | 915000.0 | EUR | – |
| `sam_kmu_ausbildende_betriebe_de` | `total * kmu_share` | 384674.0 | betriebe | – |
| `sam_realms_target_universe_kmu` | `kmu_betriebe * (1 - enterprise_discount)` | 365440.3 | betriebe | – |
| `sam_pain_active_betriebe_de` | `icp_universe * pain_share` | 175411.19999999998 | betriebe | – |
| `sam_digital_addressable_betriebe_de` | `pain_active * digital_adoption` | 122787.7 | betriebe | – |
| `sam_after_diy_addressable_betriebe_de` | `digital_addressable * (1 - diy_discount)` | 73672.8 | betriebe | – |
| `sam_bottom_up_eur_year` | `addressable_betriebe * arpu` | 405201500.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_top_down_block_a_kmu_adjusted_eur_year` | `tam_block_a * kmu_share * (1 - enterprise_discount)` | 486766479.59999996 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_top_down_eur_year` | `block_a_adj * region_share` | 486812012.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_cross_check_ratio` | `bu / td` | 0.8323572344389891 | ratio | – |
| `sam_de_canonical_eur_year` | `(bu + td) / 2` | 446006756.0 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_de_y1_2027_eur_year` | `sam_2026 * (1 + block_a_cagr)` | 472767161.36 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_de_y2_2028_eur_year` | `sam_y1 * (1 + block_a_cagr)` | 501133190.66 | eur_per_year | – |
| `sam_de_y3_2029_eur_year` | `sam_y2 * (1 + block_a_cagr)` | 531201182.46000004 | eur_per_year | – |
| `som_y1_conservative_customers_wedgeB` | `direct_contacts * direct_close_rate + seed_referral_count` | 30.0 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y1_base_customers_wedgeB` | `direct_contacts * direct_close_rate + school_channel_leads * school_conv + seed_referral + content_inbound` | 87.5 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y1_ambitious_customers_wedgeB` | `direct_contacts * direct_close_rate + school_channel_leads * school_conv + outbound_sdr + seed_referral + content_inbound` | 159.0 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y2_conservative_customers_wedgeB` | `y1_customers * (1 - churn) + y2_new` | 74.0 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y3_conservative_customers_wedgeB` | `y2_customers * (1 - churn) + y3_new` | 134.2 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y2_base_customers_wedgeB` | `y1_customers * (1 - churn) + y2_new` | 194.8 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y3_base_customers_wedgeB` | `y2_customers * (1 - churn) + y3_new` | 345.75 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y2_ambitious_customers_wedgeB` | `y1_customers * (1 - churn) + y2_new` | 373.1 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y3_ambitious_customers_wedgeB` | `y2_customers * (1 - churn) + y3_new` | 685.7 | Kunden | – |
| `som_y1_conservative_eur` | `customers * arpu * launch_months_share` | 94500.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y2_conservative_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 333000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y3_conservative_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 603000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y1_base_eur` | `customers * arpu * launch_months_share` | 363000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y2_base_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 1072500.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y3_base_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 1903000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y1_ambitious_eur` | `customers * arpu * launch_months_share` | 954000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y2_ambitious_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 2797500.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y3_ambitious_eur` | `customers * arpu` | 5145000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_cac_conservative_eur` | `marketing_budget_y1 / y1_new_customers` | 3333.3333333333335 | EUR/Kunde | – |
| `som_cac_base_eur` | `marketing_budget_y1 / y1_new_customers` | 1136.3636363636363 | EUR/Kunde | – |
| `som_cac_ambitious_eur` | `(marketing_budget_y1 + outbound_sales_cost) / y1_new_customers` | 1698.1132075471698 | EUR/Kunde | – |
| `som_ltv_conservative_eur` | `arpu / annual_churn` | 22500.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_ltv_base_eur` | `arpu / annual_churn` | 36666.66666666667 | EUR | – |
| `som_ltv_ambitious_eur` | `arpu / annual_churn` | 75000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_ltv_cac_conservative` | `ltv / cac` | 6.750675067506751 | ratio | – |
| `som_ltv_cac_base` | `ltv / cac` | 32.27728873239437 | ratio | – |
| `som_ltv_cac_ambitious` | `ltv / cac` | 44.169611307420496 | ratio | – |
| `som_cac_payback_base_months` | `cac / (arpu / 12)` | 2.4785454545454546 | months | – |
| `som_break_even_customers` | `fixed_cost_monthly / (arpu / 12)` | 136.36363636363637 | Kunden | – |
| `som_sam_penetration_y3_base_pct` | `som_eur * 100 / sam_y3_eur` | 0.3582446847793347 | percent | – |
| `som_sam_penetration_y3_ambitious_pct` | `som_eur * 100 / sam_y3_eur` | 0.9685595917969927 | percent | – |
| `som_cac_base_fully_loaded_eur` | `(marketing_budget_y1 + founder_sales_time_cost + network_amortization) / y1_new_customers` | 3693.181818181818 | EUR/Kunde | – |
| `som_ltv_cac_base_fully_loaded` | `ltv / cac_full` | 9.928784186298403 | ratio | – |
| `som_cac_payback_base_fully_loaded_months` | `cac_full / (arpu / 12)` | 8.057454545454545 | months | – |
| `som_y3_base_wedgeA_eur` | `customers * arpu_wedgeA` | 519000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y3_base_wedgeB_eur` | `customers * arpu_wedgeB` | 1903000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_ltv_base_corrected_churn25_eur` | `arpu / churn_rate` | 22000.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_ltv_cac_base_fully_loaded_churn25` | `ltv / cac` | 5.957216355266721 | ratio | – |
| `som_reach_base_implied_marketing_budget_y1_eur` | `new_customers * cac_marketing_only` | 99968.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_ambitious_ltv_cac_corrected_churn15_cac5000` | `(arpu / churn) / cac_conservative` | 10.0 | ratio | – |
| `som_y3_base_ensemble_arpu_eur` | `starter_share*starter_price + standard_share*standard_price + premium_share*premium_price` | 4050.0 | EUR/year | – |
| `pricing_low_scenario_eur_year` | `mid_price * low_factor` | 3575.0 | EUR/year | – |
| `pricing_high_scenario_eur_year` | `mid_price * high_factor` | 7699.999999999999 | EUR/year | – |
| `som_y3_base_low_price_customers_adjusted` | `base_customers * (1 + conv_lift)` | 415.2 | customers | – |
| `som_y3_base_high_price_customers_adjusted` | `base_customers * (1 + conv_drop)` | 294.09999999999997 | customers | – |
| `som_y3_low_price_revenue_eur` | `customers_lift * low_price` | 1484340.0 | EUR | – |
| `som_y3_high_price_revenue_eur` | `customers_drop * high_price` | 2264570.0 | EUR | – |
| `pricing_ensemble_arpu_ensemble_eur` | `s_share*s_price + m_share*m_price + p_share*p_price` | 4050.0 | EUR/year | – |
| `pricing_bias_toward_handwerk_ensemble_eur` | `s_share*s_price + m_share*m_price + p_share*p_price` | 3450.0 | EUR/year | – |
| `pricing_upside_toward_premium_ensemble_eur` | `s_share*s_price + m_share*m_price + p_share*p_price` | 4650.0 | EUR/year | – |

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_Generiert via `lib/render_audit_md.py` · Marktanalyse-Orchestrator v4_